Paskaita apie XXI a. išskirtinumą ir pasaulio ateitį

VP Korotayev int2020 m. kovo 12 d. Vilniaus universiteto Azijos ir transkultūrinių studijų institute svečiavosi rusų antropologas, ekonomikos istorikas, lyginamosios politikos mokslų atstovas Andrey Korotayev. Kviečiame pažiūrėti jo paskaitos „The 21st Century Singularity and the Future of the World: A Big History Perspective“ vaizdo įrašą.

The idea that in the near future we should expect “the Singularity” has become quite popular recently, thanks to the activities of Google technical director, Raymond Kurzweil and his book „The Singularity Is Near“ (2005). The mathematical analysis of the series of events (described by Kurzweil) starts with the emergence of our Galaxy and ends with the decoding of the DNA code. This series of events is described by an extremely simple mathematical function (not known to Kurzweil himself) that predicts a singularity in the region of 2029. A similar time series (beginning with the onset of life on Earth and ending with the information revolution) composed by the Russian physicist Alexander Panov (completely independently of Kurzweil) produced a mathematical function with a singularity in the region of 2027.

This function is similar to the equation discovered in 1960 by Heinz von Foerster published in “Science” which describes the dynamics of the world population and predicts a mathematical singularity in the region of 2027. I will review these findings and show that they indicate the existence of global macro-evolutionary regularities. At the same time, it is demonstrated that in the region of the singularity point there is no reason to expect an unprecedented acceleration of the rates of technological development. There are more grounds for interpreting the predicted singularity as an indication of an inflection point, after which the pace of global evolution will begin to systematically slow down in the long term.

Apie pranešėją:

Andrey Korotayev is a Russian anthropologist, economic historian, comparative political scientist, demographer and sociologist, with major contributions to world-systems theory, cross-cultural studies, Near Eastern history, Big History, and mathematical modelling of social and economic macrodynamics. He is currently the Head of the Laboratory of Monitoring of the Risks of Sociopolitical Destabilization at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, and a Senior Research Professor at the Eurasian Center for Big History and System Forecasting of the Institute of Oriental Studies as well as in the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In addition, he is a Senior Research Professor of the International Laboratory on Political Demography and Social Macrodynamics (PDSM) of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, as well as a Full Professor of the Faculty of Global Studies of the Moscow State University. He has authored/co-authored over 400 scholarly publications, including such monographs as Ancient Yemen (Oxford University Press, 1995), World Religions and Social Evolution of the Old World Oikumene Civilizations: A Cross-Cultural Perspective (The Edwin Mellen Press, 2004), Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth (URSS, 2006), Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends (URSS, 2006), Great Divergence and Great Convergence. A Global Perspective (Springer, 2015), Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery (Springer, 2016), The 21st century Singularity and global futures. A Big History perspective (Springer, 2020). He is a laureate of a Russian Science Support Foundation in ‘The Best Economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Nomination (2006); in 2012 he was awarded with the Gold Kondratieff Medal by the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation.


 

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